My Predictions

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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 07:58 AM
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From: Among javelinas and scorpions in Zoniestan
My Predictions

Just to add to the whole pointless clutter of the discussions in this forum, here are my fearless predictions for the (soon to be over) election:
1. Obama will win reelection.
2. The Democratic party will retain a narrow majority in the Senate.
3. The Republican party will retain a majority in the House, but the Democratic party will pick up a small number of seats.
4. Freedom of Religion will survive in this Country, despite what Paul Ryan asserts.
Now, if I'm wrong on any of this, feel free to point it out - endlessly!

- Jack
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 09:11 AM
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Unfortunately, in my opinion, your predictions are probably correct. I dread the next 4 years.
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 09:22 AM
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From: Among javelinas and scorpions in Zoniestan
Originally Posted by Bluejay
Unfortunately, in my opinion, your predictions are probably correct. I dread the next 4 years.
As I said before, Jim, our Country WILL survive, no matter what. In the short term, things may not go the way we want, but in the long term, things will work out.

- Jack
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 09:30 AM
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Romney 51% Obama 48% Other (Gary Johnson, etc) 1%
Romney gets 290+ in the Electoral College
Republicans maintain about the same majority size in the House
Republicans narrowly get control of the Senate

Alot of these polls that point to an Obama win or that have it all tied up at this point assume that the Democrats will get equal or greater turnout to 2008. The latest CNN poll for example is D+11, which is absurd. This election will come down to turnout, and I don't believe Obama will get as much as he did in 2008. I see turnout being about equal this time, maybe the Democrats get a D+3 advantage in turnout overall, but Romney still wins in that scenario.

Whatever happens I just hope the election is wrapped up by Wednesday morning. We don't need another one drawn out in the courts or in the media. It will only divide the nation even further.
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by JackandJanet
:
1. Obama will win reelection.
2. The Democratic party will retain a narrow majority in the Senate.
3. The Republican party will retain a majority in the House, but the Democratic party will pick up a small number of seats.
4. Freedom of Religion will survive in this Country, despite what Paul Ryan asserts.
1. Disagree. Romney wins with at least 300 electoral college votes and 52% of the popular vote.

2. Probably true, but I'll hope Obama's 'negative' coat tails cost the Dems the Senate, too.

3. Sorry, the Dems are not going to have a net gain in the house.

4. I have no idea what this means.
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 09:58 AM
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Whatever happens I just hope the election is wrapped up by Wednesday morning.
Good chance it won't be. There are going to be a lot of paper and provisional ballots this year due to the aftermath of Sandy, and NJ has extended the deadline for mailin ballots to be received to 11/19 (but requiring a postmark no later than today). Not that NJ is a state in play on the national scene, but nothing is official till they certify the vote.
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 10:01 AM
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Romney will win in a semi-landslide. Too many polls that oversample Dems: http://twitchy.com/2012/11/04/cnn-po...-of-absurdity/
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 11:16 AM
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From: the moral high ground
1. The Electoral College hangs at 268-257.

2. Virginia (13) is too close to call.

3. Virginia recount reveals a win by one vote.

4. Polls open in 18 hours and as the last undecided voter in the State I will be choosing the next President.

Hep Me! Hep me somebody! Hep Me!
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by JackandJanet
As I said before, Jim, our Country WILL survive, no matter what. In the short term, things may not go the way we want, but in the long term, things will work out.

- Jack
I question if it will really survive. It certainly would not be the same. It has already dropped out of the top 10 most prosperous countries, dropping 8 places to number 12. That is certainly not a good sign.

http://www.li.com/media/press-releas...-election-year

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...rops-time.html
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 11:21 AM
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Hoping Romney pulls this off... Definitely don't think people are as caught up in him like in '08. The media's free passes for him are disgusting none-the-less
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Raoul
1. The Electoral College hangs at 268-257.

2. Virginia (13) is too close to call.

3. Virginia recount reveals a win by one vote.

4. Polls open in 18 hours and as the last undecided voter in the State I will be choosing the next President.

Hep Me! Hep me somebody! Hep Me!
I'll hep ya.

With NC and Florida going Romney, Romney doesn't need VA.

But I do predict it will go Romney when the votes are counted. Along with Ohio, Indiana, and perhaps even NH and PA. Even Minnesota is in play, which is almost unbelieveable considering the politics of Madison and Milwaukee.

A great indicator is the gap in GA. McCain only won GA by 5.2% in 2008. A friend of mine works in the Georgia Romney campaign and told me last week that Romney leads here by 12.2% now. That doesn't bode well for Obama nationwide.
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by glc
Good chance it won't be. There are going to be a lot of paper and provisional ballots this year due to the aftermath of Sandy, and NJ has extended the deadline for mailin ballots to be received to 11/19 (but requiring a postmark no later than today). Not that NJ is a state in play on the national scene, but nothing is official till they certify the vote.
Exactly. NY and NJ will definitely go Obama. We'll know without their 'official' tallies.
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 11:57 AM
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There's probably some Congressional races in play in NJ and NY.
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 12:25 PM
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From: the moral high ground
I will predict that Romney will win the popular vote.

I have been getting RNC robo calls on my Obama phone.
I didn't even think that was possible.
 
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Old Nov 5, 2012 | 01:00 PM
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I predict Texas will vote Republican
 
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