Kim Jong Ill
Senior Member
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 5,522
Likes: 6
From: Utah
Good point, per capita they are on even ground ( eye ball, looks like North Korea is slightly above China ). Think it was the "outrage number", not statistically that he was shooting for.
You said it best here.
As long as... That is the part that would not happen.
China would covertly or overtly be involved. Which is dependent on what the US does.
Some how the thought that boots on the ground are not a big part of a war anymore has become a pseudo fact.
Fact is boots on the ground are still a big part of conflicts.
Look at Libya, it should have been so easy, why are there still issues floating around there. The UN ( US ) air power was an order of magnitude better, and it was not a walk in the park.
Without indiscriminate bombing to flatten the country ( read take out military and civilians the same ) it comes down to boots on the ground.
The South might be able to air transport them into the country, but once there, they have an Army that is 2x what they are to take out.
South Korea might be better at it than South Vietnam was, but the military trained and backed by the US always have a way of getting their teeth kicked in when it comes to those armies trained and backed by China.
The US & UN had better equipment than the North when we were there in the 50s, look how that turned out.
You said it best here.
As long as... That is the part that would not happen.
China would covertly or overtly be involved. Which is dependent on what the US does.
Some how the thought that boots on the ground are not a big part of a war anymore has become a pseudo fact.
Fact is boots on the ground are still a big part of conflicts.
Look at Libya, it should have been so easy, why are there still issues floating around there. The UN ( US ) air power was an order of magnitude better, and it was not a walk in the park.
Without indiscriminate bombing to flatten the country ( read take out military and civilians the same ) it comes down to boots on the ground.
The South might be able to air transport them into the country, but once there, they have an Army that is 2x what they are to take out.
South Korea might be better at it than South Vietnam was, but the military trained and backed by the US always have a way of getting their teeth kicked in when it comes to those armies trained and backed by China.
The US & UN had better equipment than the North when we were there in the 50s, look how that turned out.
Technical Article Contributor
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 10,511
Likes: 10
From: Under the flightpath of old ORD 22R
If China were ran by wise men they would want a stable, prosperous Korea on there border. Korea should be a huge Chinese trading partner. the country's have much to offer each other. China should allow Korean unification led by the south. Wise men could see that. To bad the Chinese government is not wise..
I had looked this up, as a post above had me thinking of unification not by force, but if by the similar / same method as Germany ( a verbal misstep by a politician ).
The post unified Germany had a bit of a financial impact to the country's bottom line. The expenses that the West incurred for unification with the East. Infrastructure was broken down, no real economic policy or function, everything was based upon the Party process from Russia, the funneling of money into political party, the wall and spying on the citizens of East Germany. This had some profit with neighboring countries, but it was not a trade boom for them.
So my opinion comes to, Unification of North and South is going to make little if any impact as a trading partner with China or the WTO as a whole versus the South being stand alone.
It is just an opinion that I have formed thinking about it. Not too sure how correct it is. Could be a half baked idea, who knows.
Senior Member
Joined: Aug 1999
Posts: 1,506
Likes: 0
From: Bakersfield, CA, USA
IMO, China does want a 'stable' Korea. That is why they send food to North Korea. They don't want a flood of refugees. So they will help N. Korea just enough to keep the citizens from fleeing into China.
However, I doubt China wants unification of North and South Korea. They would like a buffer between themselves and the capitalism of S. Korea. If markets and trade are to develop in N. Korea, the Chinese would rather keep it to themselves, and have the N. Koreans as a client state. Unification of the Korean peninsula under the control of the south would not benefit the Chinese.
As to what is going to happen in N. Korea over the next 5 years, I think it is very difficult for anyone to forecast. Personally, I don't expect unification. An improvement of relations between N. and S. would be great.
However, I doubt China wants unification of North and South Korea. They would like a buffer between themselves and the capitalism of S. Korea. If markets and trade are to develop in N. Korea, the Chinese would rather keep it to themselves, and have the N. Koreans as a client state. Unification of the Korean peninsula under the control of the south would not benefit the Chinese.
As to what is going to happen in N. Korea over the next 5 years, I think it is very difficult for anyone to forecast. Personally, I don't expect unification. An improvement of relations between N. and S. would be great.
Senior Member
Joined: Mar 1998
Posts: 1,719
Likes: 1
From: Blue Ridge Mountains, GA