Gas Prices?
Senior Member
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 2,552
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Originally Posted by ChrisAdams
8 months ago I posted that oil was being way over priced in the future market. The price which reflects the prediction of what oil will cost was set super high, which is reflected at the pump at the time the future price is posted.
The super high price was based on;
1. This would be the worst hurricane season in history. This was based on nonsense.
2. That gasoline usage would increase rather than decrease when gas cost more. Ludicrous but common assumption.
3. That it would take years before the refineries and platforms damaged by hurricanes would be back at 100%. Again, ludicrous. They were back to 90% in record time.
Also adding to the insane increases in futures prices were;
1. California required changing virtually all gas to more PC blends. Since California uses almost 20% of the gas in this country that really shocked the market. The blends waste about 10-25% more gas than the gas used in the rest of the country. Refineries were down while converting thus creating a government mandated shortage.
2. Hurricane damage was still being fixed.
3. There was a pipeline damaged (BP) that wasn't as damaged as the newspapers said it was.
4. The Press went nuts, over reporting every price increase, thus encouraging station owners, distributors, refineries, producers to jack the price in case the futures market was right. It seldom is.
5. The biggy, speculators hoping to get super rich drove the prices up. The futures market is gambling, big time. Now that prices are actually dropping many of these speculators are losing their shirts.
All of this is and has been reported every day; just it's easier to yell conspiracy than to actually do five minutes of research.
Chris
The super high price was based on;
1. This would be the worst hurricane season in history. This was based on nonsense.
2. That gasoline usage would increase rather than decrease when gas cost more. Ludicrous but common assumption.
3. That it would take years before the refineries and platforms damaged by hurricanes would be back at 100%. Again, ludicrous. They were back to 90% in record time.
Also adding to the insane increases in futures prices were;
1. California required changing virtually all gas to more PC blends. Since California uses almost 20% of the gas in this country that really shocked the market. The blends waste about 10-25% more gas than the gas used in the rest of the country. Refineries were down while converting thus creating a government mandated shortage.
2. Hurricane damage was still being fixed.
3. There was a pipeline damaged (BP) that wasn't as damaged as the newspapers said it was.
4. The Press went nuts, over reporting every price increase, thus encouraging station owners, distributors, refineries, producers to jack the price in case the futures market was right. It seldom is.
5. The biggy, speculators hoping to get super rich drove the prices up. The futures market is gambling, big time. Now that prices are actually dropping many of these speculators are losing their shirts.
All of this is and has been reported every day; just it's easier to yell conspiracy than to actually do five minutes of research.
Chris
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 335
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$2.00 for ethanol here, regular running $2.05.
Just out of curiosity, and accepting the idea of the futures markets being to blame for the high prices and the current plunge, has anyone actually taken the time time to find out who the"traders" are and where they give their money?
I propose an experiment to disprove or prove that the republicans are calling in favors with any special interest groups that would be able to influence prices to bolster support in the upcoming elections.
Everyone here for the next two weeks participate in any poll they can and say they're going to vote democrat. Then we'll monitor the pump price.
After the democrat weeks, everyone will say their going to vote republican for two weeks and the pump prices noted.
If goes down in the democrat weeks, but goes back up or stagnates in the republican, we'll be able to argue about what it means, but just think, F150 could say we screwed with the politicians heads big flippin time
Just out of curiosity, and accepting the idea of the futures markets being to blame for the high prices and the current plunge, has anyone actually taken the time time to find out who the"traders" are and where they give their money?
I propose an experiment to disprove or prove that the republicans are calling in favors with any special interest groups that would be able to influence prices to bolster support in the upcoming elections.
Everyone here for the next two weeks participate in any poll they can and say they're going to vote democrat. Then we'll monitor the pump price.
After the democrat weeks, everyone will say their going to vote republican for two weeks and the pump prices noted.
If goes down in the democrat weeks, but goes back up or stagnates in the republican, we'll be able to argue about what it means, but just think, F150 could say we screwed with the politicians heads big flippin time
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 605
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From: Knoxville, TN
I would believe it if I heard that politics was to blame for the lowered price, but looking at everything, I just can't believe that's the case now. Not having any hurricanes even sniff at the coastal US is what is driving the price down.
The futures traders bought up tons in May for June delivery, June for July, and July for August. Now, come August not one hurricane has threatened, and they have huge stockpiles of oil at $70-80 a barrel that's starting to look quite expensive to the buying market. So they're selling it off to make some of their money back.
The bad bit is, OPEC sees this downward spiral of oil the last month or so. They're considering "kinking the hose" so as to get the oil back up to where it was; I guess one indoor ski center isn't enough.
The futures traders bought up tons in May for June delivery, June for July, and July for August. Now, come August not one hurricane has threatened, and they have huge stockpiles of oil at $70-80 a barrel that's starting to look quite expensive to the buying market. So they're selling it off to make some of their money back.
The bad bit is, OPEC sees this downward spiral of oil the last month or so. They're considering "kinking the hose" so as to get the oil back up to where it was; I guess one indoor ski center isn't enough.
Certified Goat Breeder
Joined: Feb 1999
Posts: 6,182
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From: the moral high ground
Originally Posted by Stealth
I think Raoul needs equal time on this one.
Originally Posted by mountaineer02v8
1.89 this morning!!!!!!!!!!!
Mountaineer, as you know I am prevented by those pesky laws from running for a third term. I was just wondering good buddy, if you would consider supporting my cousin in '08. He's a good ole boy and you know it would be kinda a 'I'll scratch your back if.....if....and we won't get fooled again'.
Oh and by the way, don't fill up until 1 Oct, I'm droppin' her another 12 cents."
Hello Mr. Mountaineer, I would just like to reiterate what was been put forth by our Commander in Chief.
I know you are a good American and I know you'll do the right thing.
Greetings upon you oh great and wise Mountaineer.
I am the cousin of the Leader of the Free World and I understand he has spoken of me to you and I can count on your support in Nov 2008.
I know you didn't like him and I look like him very very much but,
it ain't me, I swear.
