At least you know how to make light of a situation.

 

It's just temporary. I still have to make three more payments for my sniper rifle.

 

Runnert:

You know, on this issue, I cannot get morally wound up on either side, I think that there are things to think about on both sides. However, it does just seem to me that the numbers are coming down on the side of "we're doing pretty good" despite all the naysayers.

The IT sector is certainly a problem, as someone posted that a call center set up in response to one major economic development (the closure of a coal mine) is being shut down due to another only a few years later (the outsourcing of IT jobs).

My thinking is that if the Indians are really as bad as everyone is saying, it won't be long before those jobs come back here. On the other hand, if they do not come back here, we learned that that type of work is low value. Let's find work that is high value!

If Walmart jobs are so bad, then boycott Walmart. Give your dollars to the guy that pays more and of course has to charge more. You won't have as much for made-in-America truck mods, but you will be supporting check out clerks.

I am being harsh, but still, it seems the statistics do not support the view that we as a whole are really all that bad off. Rather, the opposite seems true, that we are in one of the most robust recoveries on record, on the whole. I admit that we have some way to go, but we are not so bad off, are we really?

TS

PS... to Raoul, who is always amusing, and whose opinion I respect (when he shows it)!

 

http://www.cnn.com/2004/BUSINESS/03/...ons/index.html

Interesting CNN article on tariffs for those who like to think the US can do whatever we want to.

-Don

 

I keep hearing about this economic recovery but I haven't seen it. My business did not drop much as the economy tanked, but it hasn't gotten any better either. For every new client I bring on I have an existing client that needs to cut back because business is slow for them.

While I am sure things will get better, and I will keep pushing to expand my business, I (and many others) simply have not seen any real signs of recovery.

-Don

 

Well I can’t speak for all, like sirket, but I have seen business pick up quite a bit where I work (we manufacture electric motors).

The real impressive jump as been in the number of motors we manufacture for a customer that uses them in big ovens used for circuit boards. We have two customers that buy two different motors, which are for the same “type” of application (circuit board ovens).

Both customers have more then doubled their normal monthly units, an increase of over 100%.

That means two things, a jump in business for us, and a jump in business for all these other business’s that need ovens for circuit boards. Thus somebody is having a jump in business that uses circuit boards as well and that is a really good sign…

Things are on their way up and things are looking better…

Another important thing to think about is if your thinking about buying a house or refinancing you might want to do so in the near future because as things start looking brighter interest rates will start to creep up…

Finally, it feels good getting out of the Clinton recession and the over 2 million jobs he cost this country…

 

Good link, Sirket...

The steel tariffs seemed like a bad idea at the time; it certainly went against the free trade ideal, and the course of the economy was predictable on those lines. Steel manufacturers were protected at the expense of manufacturers.

At the time, I thought the only reason to do the tariffs was to throw the protectionists a bone. I didn't think that was worth it, but now people are saying the tariffs had the effect of allowing the steel industry to retool, so maybe it wasn't all bad, but I don't know.

I am not familiar with the law that the WTO said violates its free trade mandates, so I am not sure why it feels the sanctions are justified.

Sirket, it seems to me that free trade is an issue we ought to agree on more or less. The previous administration was not only very supportive of free trade, but did much to prop up economies all over the world, when they were needed. (Please don't start on accusations that the current administration "caused" the recession that we seem to be climbing out of).

When Kerry and Edwards say they are going to return to "fair" trade, does that mean that they are foreswearing protectionist policies like the steel tariffs, and whatever law it is that the EU is complaining about? Are they saying that the US will quit doing that? Is that what they are talking about? If so, that is good, but I think they meant to spin it the other way.

TS.

 

01 XLT Sport's business is what is called a "leading indicator". As businesses like his change, so does the economy. He is the first to feel a pinch and the first to feel the uptick.

My industry (heavy engineering and construction) is often a "lagging indicator". That means that my industry tends to be the last to crash in a recession and the last to recover in a boom. Our company is a bit thin right now.

Some industries are more or less immune to the business cycle. Grocery stores, general medicine/health care come to mind. I have a friend who is an auctioneer. His business is positively booming when other businesses are doing poorly (he sells off bankrupt companies' inventories, for example).

So different businesses do differently depending on the character of their primary market. Some companies do badly even when things are looking up, because they are so poorly managed.

However, since I know what 01's business upturn means, I am optimistic. I am convinced we are getting back on our feet again.

TS

 

Maybe a few politicians need to come to the city I live in and look around just a bit before they say they're creating jobs and / or we're not loosing high paying manufacturing jobs. I can show them a 5 million square foot (you read that right) state of the art manufacturing facility that the company I work for recently closed and sold. 12,000 jobs down the tubes. (The new owner hasn't been able to lease out the space to anyone either.) If this is a truly an economic recovery, where are the jobs?

 

Let's see, Rochester NY...Home of Kodak, is that right? Main employer there? Could the manufacturing jobs lost have anything to do with the conventional film camera industry?

Time to find a new, creative outlet for your efforts. Film cameras will not disappear, heck in south eastern Pennsylvania there is a thriving business for buggies. But mostly its gone elsewhere. I guess that is the fault of international trade? The Republicans outsourcing?

Maybe my speculation is wrong, but your case would be exhibit A if I am right.

TS

 

articles and information......

US:
http://www.propertyrightsresearch.or...ts_of_plan.htm

""This reflects a lot of what's going on in America, whether it's East Coast, West Coast or Middle West," said Galesburg's mayor, Robert Sheehan. "The economy is changing. People say that's a part of life. When it hits elsewhere, people can just shrug their shoulders and say life goes on. But when it hits your own area, well, then it has a very different meaning. It's going to be tough."
"

http://www.mccoyconsulting.com/plant.htm
"Our national economy is shifting from manufacturing to technology. People that were skilled in a particular trade find themselves out of work. Twenty years ago those people thought they would work for the same company until retirement, and live the good life, the American dream. Now they find themselves unemployed."
"It became clear early in the 1980’s that the pace and extent of plant closings would continue undiminished and unabated for the foreseeable future.

The General Accounting Office estimates that 2.3 million workers were dislocated annually due to plant closings or layoffs. All indications are that the annual number continues to increase."

Discussion about unemployment rate in the US has been hashed out already.

Europe:
http://www.jrc.es/iptsreport/vol02/english/art5.htm
"Over the past 20 years or so, there has been a serious decline in manufacturing employment (> 20%) in Europe, while its main competitors, the US and Japan, have experienced net manufacturing employment increases of 1.5% and 4% respectively."
"But if history eventually appears to be repeating itself with manufacturing, perhaps it does not matter, as the cause for concern may be due to problems of definition."

http://www.uniplanet.net/archives/dp/dp20/20_04.htm
A lot of interesting stuff in this one.

Australia:
http://news.com.au/common/story_page...1702%2C00.html

http://ipa.org.au/pubs/workreform/foodfs.html

Unemployment
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@....c!OpenDocument
link appears to have failed, current unemployment is 5.6%, their unemplotment graph looked a lot like the US.

Canada:
http://www.statcanada.org/english/Su...LFS/lfs-en.htm

http://wardsauto.com/ar/transportati...hift/index.htm

World unemployment rates: (kinda rough)
http://www.nationmaster.com/red/grap...une_rat&int=-1

 

ok, I'm amazed that all went into one posting.

Point being we aren't the only ones on this planet facing challenges. There's a wide variety of situations around the world. Some countries might be making more progress than the US, but it's not a dramatic difference IMHO.

I know it's a lot of info to look through, but it's interesting to see the perspectives from other countries. Australia for instance blames the US for a lot of it's manufacturing losses, wich would mean that those jobs would be coming here? Most of what I found is that comparable western societies suffer the same problems we are. Unfortunately there are countries out there the suffer a huge disparity in econonmies from us. I feel that in the end we can help bring a lot of "third world" countries into a higher status with global trade. That WILL mean challenges for larger economies. It will also mean environmental challenges. I believe there should be realistic levels of environmental standards held against those companies that operate facilities outside the US. It's a big challange yes, but a challenge I feel we have to face in order to grow our own future.

I guess what I'm trying to say is protectionism/isolationism = bad, embracing globalization = good. Growing pains will be felt by all.

Another note: I don't want to deminish the fact that there are some people here that have found themselves out of work. I know I wouldn't want to be in your position of having to reasses my career path and be uprooted from a lifestyle. You never know, me and my family may be there some day. It sucks, and I hope the best for those that are trying their best to move out of that situation. It is also easy to blame someone else for what has happened. That's basic human tendancy, I understand that. I hope that those that are affected can rechannel that energy into finding a brighter future for themselves.

My overall feeling is in the next 50 years things are going to look a whole lot different than they do now. We may even find ourselves thinking in terms of finding career paths not on national scales but international. Kinda crazy to think that finding a career oportunity may mean moving to a different country. It may also mean that finding a career opportunity may mean being able to learn new sets of skills two, three, or more times in your lifetime in order to maintain a locality.

There may be some mistypes/misspellings in there somewhere, I'll try to edit any out if I see them.

 

Anyone play golf?

From NPR:

Taylormade clubs - Their heads used to machined in Mexico where they paid someone 300 bucks a month to clean the parts after machining.

Their heads are now machined in Vietnam at a state of the art facility (Vietnam is building many state of the art industries to attract business to them) so they require less cleaning or post machining work. They now pay someone 100 bucks a month for that work.

Appalling ain't it?

What clubs will you buy?

 

http://ecoteacher.asn.au/economagic/...978-2002-0.pdf

 

Another opinion point I failed to make above. Added to environmental concerns should also be treatment of workers. Now, $100 a month in Vietnam might be a lot. That's part of the wide differences in economies around the world. Now, being Vietnam I'd have to wonder about the conditions. You could be right to vote with your pocketbook on this one. Anyone know of an information network on the web that talks about conditons in different country's working facilities?