Sleeping Tigers!
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Sleeping Tigers!
dailyreckoning.com is a daily letter that i find interesting....i thought this excerpt particularly thought provoking....john
*** "Errors always come along when you need them." We quote a line from our forthcoming book, Financial Reckoning Day. In it, we describe how you can always count on people to do the wrong thing, sooner or later. We cite, for example, the Japanese in 1941. They were masters of the entire Asian side of the Pacific Rim. The only potential competition they faced was remote and reluctant: the U.S. So, what do they do? The one thing...and perhaps the only thing...that could ruin them - they bombed Pearl Harbor. Tojo immediately recognized his mistake. "I fear," said he, "we have awakened a sleeping tiger."
Nature hates monopolies; every niche is balanced by competition. Every hero has his nemesis. Death stalks every bull and every bear market...and there are sleeping tigers everywhere.
And yet, at the debut of the 3rd millennium, it appeared that the American military had no rival.
A visitor from Mars or West Virginia might have looked at the world and wondered: what could stop the U.S.?
And then came the War on Terrorism. It was a popular project for the Bush Administration, but there was just one problem: a shortage of terrorists. If you're going to have a war against someone, you must have someone against whom to make war. The American people had all been marshaled to fight terrorism...but, after the 9/11 strike, the terrorists disappeared. They did not take out bridges, or buildings, or even blow up tin cans in municipal dumps. Logical inference: there were very few terrorists.
But then, the Bush Administration may have found the mistake it was looking for: it invaded Iraq. There were no terrorists there either, it turned out. (Nor any weapons of mass destruction.) But the occupation of Iraq may still provide the competition a great power needs. Recent news accounts suggest that the U.S. presence in Iraq is creating terrorists. Arab fighters, says the BBC, are leaking into Iraq, starting new groups, sabotaging pipes and blowing up things. The U.S. military is creating a bull market in terror; every crackpot with a grudge seems to be setting himself up in the business.
Has the U.S. awakened its sleeping tiger? We don't know. But it has certainly rousted more than a few muslims out of their hot slumber. Now they have a cause...and a target close at hand.
The American military machine may work well against conventional armies, but it has no advantage against determined guerrillas.
"The lesson of Algeria," said a French friend, "is that if they want you out...you should leave sooner rather than later."
*** "Errors always come along when you need them." We quote a line from our forthcoming book, Financial Reckoning Day. In it, we describe how you can always count on people to do the wrong thing, sooner or later. We cite, for example, the Japanese in 1941. They were masters of the entire Asian side of the Pacific Rim. The only potential competition they faced was remote and reluctant: the U.S. So, what do they do? The one thing...and perhaps the only thing...that could ruin them - they bombed Pearl Harbor. Tojo immediately recognized his mistake. "I fear," said he, "we have awakened a sleeping tiger."
Nature hates monopolies; every niche is balanced by competition. Every hero has his nemesis. Death stalks every bull and every bear market...and there are sleeping tigers everywhere.
And yet, at the debut of the 3rd millennium, it appeared that the American military had no rival.
A visitor from Mars or West Virginia might have looked at the world and wondered: what could stop the U.S.?
And then came the War on Terrorism. It was a popular project for the Bush Administration, but there was just one problem: a shortage of terrorists. If you're going to have a war against someone, you must have someone against whom to make war. The American people had all been marshaled to fight terrorism...but, after the 9/11 strike, the terrorists disappeared. They did not take out bridges, or buildings, or even blow up tin cans in municipal dumps. Logical inference: there were very few terrorists.
But then, the Bush Administration may have found the mistake it was looking for: it invaded Iraq. There were no terrorists there either, it turned out. (Nor any weapons of mass destruction.) But the occupation of Iraq may still provide the competition a great power needs. Recent news accounts suggest that the U.S. presence in Iraq is creating terrorists. Arab fighters, says the BBC, are leaking into Iraq, starting new groups, sabotaging pipes and blowing up things. The U.S. military is creating a bull market in terror; every crackpot with a grudge seems to be setting himself up in the business.
Has the U.S. awakened its sleeping tiger? We don't know. But it has certainly rousted more than a few muslims out of their hot slumber. Now they have a cause...and a target close at hand.
The American military machine may work well against conventional armies, but it has no advantage against determined guerrillas.
"The lesson of Algeria," said a French friend, "is that if they want you out...you should leave sooner rather than later."